Is It Different This Time?

A well proven leading indicator for economic disaster is when people begin to proclaim “It’s Different This Time” as a way of explaining how a short term movement becomes a long-term trend. Dig up your memories (and your forecasts) of Optical Networking from 1999 and you’ll agree.

I read GaveKal’s ““, a treatise on the new economy and thought it was excellent. The authors even poke fun at the fact that they are claiming it is different this time. The GaveKal book is a heavyweight analysis and is excellent reading, particularly their concepts of platform companies.

Andy Kessler recently opined in the same way, echoing opinions from his book ““.

Oil is over $70 a barrel, Iran’s got nukes, and soon they’ll price gas per ounce. The Fed has jacked short rates up 15