Archive for June, 2006
1995-2000 - Euphoria in Perspective
On July 17, 1995 the NASDAQ Index crossed 1,000 for the first time; just 5 1/3 years later, on March 9, 2000 it crossed 5,000. In the period perhaps $12 Trillion of wealth was created in US stocks.
The five following stocks of the era, the ‘nifty five’, grew in market cap by almost $2 trillion during the five plus year period, accounting for 1/6th of this stock wealth creation.
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The Future of FTTH in China - Part V
What we’ve learned
- Part One - A radical change in demographics is creating an optimal situation for a fiber build out in China
- Part Two - GE-PON has taken hold in other countries with similar demographics
- Part Three - The economic and market conditions appear to favor GE-PON
- Part Four -The activities by the largest Chinese Telecom actor reinforces this choice
In this fifth and final installment we will examine what questions remain that prevent accurate forecasting of PON deployments in China.
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Microsoft - Wealth Creation Champion
No stock characterized the wealth creation institutional era more than Microsoft where over $600B in market value was created in just 15 years (1986-2000).
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SFP+ … Yet Another 10G Optical MSA?
This article is an anonymous submission from a dedicated reader and frustrated engineer
A decade or more ago life as an “optical guy”…as grad student or a professional, revolved around fairly simple things…moving photons over here, a little “guvment” money over there, a product or two now and then…good times, good times. And if you were lucky enough to score a (gasp!) postdoc (swoon!) at Bell Labs, why ANYONE would work grueling hours for Dickensian low pay for a chance to work on things like… SONET…. DWDM… FIBER… BANDWIDTH… DATACOM…
Economics, ROI, quarterly growth, P/E, investor guidance and things of that sort, well that simply did not matter. For the truly patient investor, the general idea of a “boutique investment” applied well…a fairly complex science understood by the few in service of fewer still.
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The Long Term Growth of the US Market
One of the interesting data sets the Fed Flow of Funds Report provides is the total market value of publicly traded equities on the US market. Year End 2005 data available on-line indicates the value was $18.2 trillion.
In 1980, a quarter century prior, it was only $1.5T, an increase of $16.7T. A pretty good quarter-century of wealth creation for stockholders! In other words, 91.8% of the stock market values was ‘created’ in the last 25-years.
Below are two charts, both representing the value of U.S. stocks from the end of World War II in 1945 to the end of last year. In 1945 the entire US stock market was valued at $117 million ($282m in 1955; $735m in 1965; but only $632m in 1974!).
Note: The y-axis (left side ofchart) on a linear chart is scaled to represent the same dollar value increase regardless of the valuation level; the log chart is scaled so that the same percentage increase moves up the same level on the chart regardless of the valuation level. Log charts should be used when values are viewed over more than a few years. Expressing numbers as a logarithm scales them to allow comparison of their difference over time…$100 to $1000 (1949-1969 approx above) is same as 1000 to 10,000 about 20 years later.