I’m in Ottawa Monday for Board duties. It’s a Great city that few Americans ever visit. (and how many could name it as the capital of Canada?)
Archive for April, 2007
Ethernet conquers all. The IEEE has begun the standardization process for Ethernet AV, a set of modifications to existing Ethernet specs designed to make the protocol bulletproof for transmitting streaming audio and video.
Those of you in the component, equipment, or carrier businesses should listen to the latest strategy presentation from Carphone Warehouse, a competitive carrier that offers broadband, voice, and mobile services in the UK. It offers a stunning picture of how low the economic barriers to entry have become when building a greenfield network. Now that the price of owning one has dropped, everyone wants a Next Generation Network (NGN), and no one wants an albatross of old telecom kit.
The OECD released it’s quarterly Broadband penetration update for December 2006. It’s an excellent summary of broadband penetration even though it doesn’t include China or India. The most interesting aspect is the breakout of broadband lines by technology on a country by country basis.
Here are the key takeaways.
I cannot wean myself from a fascination with things that go logarithmic. Below is a graph of computing power cost adjusted for inflation. (GDP deflator)
The real question - why bother adjusting for inflation? When something is growing 2x every few years you would need Reichsmark inflation (which fortunately we do not have) to make a real difference.
Hat Tip: Infectious Greed
AMCC (AMCC) pre-announced a major shortfall in revenue for the March quarter and revised guidance for June down even further. The magnitude of the revenue decline is breathtaking - $76M in Dec ‘06 to $70M in Mar ‘07 to a projected $60M in June ‘07. Analysts were projecting around $76M in June ‘07 revenue.
Yesterday the SEC issued a subpoena to Nu Horizons (NUHC) for documents related to business with Vitesse Semiconductor (VTSS.pk). The motive for the subpoena is not public but I suspect it is to understand the mechanics of the transactions between the two companies that enabled Vitesse to engage in bad financial behavior.
The Wall St. Journal published an article on March 16, 2006 that uncovered the issue of stock option backdating. They were awarded the Pulitzer prize yesterday for this coverage. I’ve opined on the issue at length and written about many of the companies impacted.
Continue reading ‘WSJ Wins Pulitzer for Backdating Investigation’
People tout the big benefits of fiber but refuse to allow those who put capital at risk to make big profits. They seem to be afraid that someone, somewhere, might actually make some money.
A report from the Broadband Stakeholder Group summarizes ongoing worldwide fiber to the home (FTTH) projects . The report highlights the need for FTTH in the UK, something BT (BT) has steadfastly refused to do.
I cannot blame BT- asking them to deploy an expensive network and then be forced to lease it out to competitors (with no downside investment protection of course) is a ridiculous thing to expect of a profit driven entity.
Continue reading ‘FTTH Stakeholders /= FTTH Shareholders’
Only one half of Verizon’s wireline (VZ) revenue comes from consumers; the rest comes from business connectivity and services. Verizon, as well as other carriers, have been spending money to deliver better broadband services to consumers. What will happen when they spray this capex hose in the direction of their long neglected business customers? Which equipment companies will benefit?
Teknovus and Furukawa introduced an SFP module that incorporates not just the optics for an ONU, but all of the electronics needed as well. That’s right, an entire FTTH ONU in a slightly oversized SFP. I call it “PON on a stick”, and I thought it was the most unique new product at OFC.
It’s evidence that some believe PON is destined to migrate from being a residential-only technology towards low cost connectivity for small and medium sized enterprises (SME’s). Even if point to point connectivity is used instead of PON, it’s still a very good idea. This approach collapses the entire Ethernet demarc functionality of a box like this or this into an SFP optical module.
I spent the day shuttling around Manhattan. My travels took me near 111 8th Avenue, one of the big carrier hotels in Manhattan. Unlike previous encounters with data centers, I was unable to go inside. This building is a brick behemoth and literally spans an entire city block. Google has an entire floor to themselves.
This sort of arrangement strikes me as a little silly. Clearly it would be better to locate in lower cost real estate areas. Not everyone needs to be 500 microseconds from Wall St. If bandwidth were truly cheap people wouldn’t still be operating data centers in Manhattan. They would all be in caves in South Dakota.
Blackfriars shares a jaw-dropping graph of Apple’s (AAPL) iPod/iTunes growth. The only platform that draws comparison is Microsoft Windows, which is now the ubiquitous enterprise computing platform. Charts like the one below are strong evidence Apple is on it’s way to be the ubiquitous consumer media platform.
For those of you who missed my presentation at OFC 2007, I’ve put together an encore presentation you can watch directly on my site. I was asked to provide my opinion on the state of the optical landscape. I highlight the reasons why consolidation is necessary, why the industry isn’t 100% healthy, and the importance of commodity vs. boutique thinking.
Click through to the full post to view and comment.
The most under-reported but most significant announcement at OFC2007 was Finisar’s (FNSR) Fiber to the Home (FTTH) product. Most optical vendors are communicating their intent to NOT make a product for FTTH or Passive Optical Networking (PON) applications. When the worlds highest volume optical module supplier decides to go the opposite way, something noteworthy just happened.
Anandtech has an absolutely horrifying review detailing the trials and tribulations of setting up a Windows Vista home theater PC (HTPC) with the first HD capable TV tuner from ATI (AMD). Even with the on-site assistance of Dell (DELL) and Time Warner Cable (TWC) (with promptness and technical expertise you or I could never hope to see) it took two days to get the Windows Vista PC, external HDTV cable tuner, and Time Warner Network integrated and up and running. The resulting experience was great, though most consumers would have never had the patience or technical fortitude to get it up and running. It makes one wonder why anyone would bother to do this at all.
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