Archive for May, 2007
State of the Photon - Global FTTH Activity
I haven’t been shy about my prediction that GE-PON would trump GPON deployments and so far I’ve been right. The dominance of GE-PON continues, with large deployments planned or underway throughout Asia. Verizon (VZ) is the only carrier deploying BPON/GPON in size though some activity is promised in Europe. We shall see.
Let’s take a quick look at the state of the photon.
Five Misconceptions About the 10G Optical Market
I’ve noticed a common trend during conversations with investors and analysts about the state of the optics market. People seem to be staking their hopes on 10G as the growth driver for the industry. I firmly believe this is true, but people are assuming the gains will be evenly distributed among all players. Here are the common misconceptions:
Sprint: Cable vs. Private Equity
The market has allowed Comcast (CMCSA) the luxury of waiting to take out Sprint (S ). But the recent purchase of Alltel has increased outside interest in Sprint, as investors anticipate the company crossing over the event horizon of the private equity black hole. This sets up an interesting situation, as the strategic value of this asset to Cablecos could exceed the private valuations attached to it.
Cablecos need an independent wireless company to partner with as their voice deployments become commoditized. I argue that Sprint is vital to the long term survival of the Cablecos (see “Someone Tell the Cablecos Fixed Line is Dead“). Brian Roberts, CEO of Comcast, is on the record saying he has no interest in Sprint. But what the hell would you expect him to say? “Yes, we need an independent wireless carrier like Sprint to surviv