Archive for January, 2008

FiberGeneration: JDSU vs. EXFO : Rumor Confirmed (?)

This would make a lot of sense and really create a single Test powerhouse. It would be almost anti-competitive. More as this develops - if you have anything to add please comment.

Barron’s Online : Cadence Drops 20%: Q4 EPS In Line; But Guidance Whiffs

Cadence Q1 revenue projections are 30% short of expectations. Given virtually every semiconductor company uses their software this cannot be a good macro indicator.

There will be a Vitesse Semiconductor alumni meetup at OFC/NFOEC in San Diego. Use the contact form here if you’re interested.

Verizon FiOS TV Sub. Count Tops the Million Mark

Nice summary of VZ’s Q407. FiOS users top 1.5M, of which 1M are TV subs. Note this is all BPON. GPON revenue is not being delayed- it is being eliminated. The big question is can the revenue from landline losses be replaced somewhere else?

TDP - Estimating the Exaflood
Dense white paper from the controversial Discovery Institute outlining their case for the ‘Exaflood’. Good reading, though it cherry picks Cisco data to make its case. The underlying bias of the article is best summed up with this quote:

Policies that encourage investment and innovation in our digital and communications sectors should be among America’s highest national priorities.

Interpret this statement as you see fit.

Fiscal Stimulus Plan in Perspective

John Meynard Keynes is rolling over in his grave. While we’re no fan of Keynesian policies the raw economics is valid. That being said, the latest plan by the US government to pump $146B into the pockets of American consumers is the bluntest type of instrument that a Keynesian can employ. It is a prostitution of Keynes’s intent.

Let’s put this largess into a perspective that readers will understand. $150B would allow every household in the US to be wired with municipal Fiber to the Home (FTTH). Figure 100m American households at an average cost of $1500 (Verizon is doing it for about this number, and that includes equipment) and you hit the $150B number right on the nose.

While this endeavor is not something we would advocate, it illustrates the magnitude of the utter waste of this debt financed federal spending.

If our government must engage in debt financed spending, it is best allocated into long term productive assets. Even Keynes was clear on this manner. FTTH fits this description, dropping $800 laser-guided checks into consumer pockets does not.

Tech Trader Daily - Cablevision: Could They Try To Go Private…Again?

Shareholders would sure like to have the previous $36/share offer now as the stock is at $22. CVC much more likely to be consolidated by an incumbent than a private party.

AMCC’s New PEMAQUID Device Enables Metro Ethernet Equipment to Connect Directly to 10GbE Optical Networks

This is a very interesting product. AMCC has already sewn up the marketplace for 10G transport with this device.

dailywireless.org » DragonWave Gets a Big Order

XO / Nextlink move forward with 18GHz wireless backhaul, offering an alternative to Fibertower

After all, you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. At Berkshire, we retain our risks and depend on no one. And whatever the world’s problems, our checks will clear.

Warren Buffett
2001 Berkshire Hathaway’s Chairman’s letter