I’ve noticed a common trend during conversations with investors and analysts about the state of the optics market. People seem to be staking their hopes on 10G as the growth driver for the industry. I firmly believe this is true, but people are assuming the gains will be evenly distributed among all players. Here are the common misconceptions:
For those of you who missed my presentation at OFC 2007, I’ve put together an encore presentation you can watch directly on my site. I was asked to provide my opinion on the state of the optical landscape. I highlight the reasons why consolidation is necessary, why the industry isn’t 100% healthy, and the importance of commodity vs. boutique thinking.
Click through to the full post to view and comment.
Here’s a top 10 list of my most notable observations from the Executive Forum at the Optical Fiber Conference in Anaheim last Monday.
My only hope for this call was that I would not be surprised. In the absence of any information from the company since November 6 2006, I discovered my mind is capable of generating some frightening scenarios. The last thing I wanted to see was one of those scenarios realized. None were.
Finisar (FNSR) reported revenue Monday evening of $107.5M. No written transcript of the call is available, though a replay is and the company overview was updated. I thought there were three notable announcements.
JDSU (JDSU) announced that they are acquiring Picolight, a maker of VCSEL based optical transceivers. This is yet another example of healthy consolidation in the optical components business, which ultimately will lead to a better business environment for all- except for the customers like Cisco that exploit the oversupply situation. And Cisco is the likely reason JDSU bought Picolight in the first place.
Cortina has agreed to acquire Immenstar. I’ve written about both companies extensively (See here and here).
This acquisition is surprising. Cortina previously focused more on the core of the network and has either built or acquired products designed to enable the next generation of WAN equipment for carrier applications. Immenstar is tightly focused on fiber to the home chipsets, a much more access oriented application. I suspect that Cortina is looking to couple it’s carrier class ethernet solutions with Immenstar’s high density OLT solution. Still, it is not a pretty fit.
I had a long conversation with someone who posed this question. I know little about WiMAX but I know people who know great deal, people who have put their money where their mouth is. The question I pose isn’t whether WiMAX is going to be successful, but why is Intel (INTC) pouring so much money into making it a reality?
The Vitesse (VTSS.PK) accounting debacle announced yesterday will impact other companies in the components market. My gut feeling is that other non-commodity component companies are engaging in this behavior right now. The old adage applies- if you see one roach, there are a thousand more.
Vitesse (VTSS.PK) announced the results of the review by the Board of Directors into stock option backdating and revenue recognition issues. I found the release lacking in new information, and I expected to see more information about the implication of several disclosures.