Some weekend fun, and appropriate given the recent research note on Alcatel-Lucent (ALU). From Goldman Sach’s Tim Boddy, who asserts that Lucatel’s revenues are in “Free-Fall”:
Continue reading ‘Lucatel’
Archive for the 'Musings' Category
I’m off to OFC/NFOEC in Anaheim next week. I’ll be at the OSA Executive forum Monday and at the show Tue-Thurs. I’ll also be participating on the “Marketwatch: A Wall St. Perspective” panel Thursday afternoon at 11AM. Don’t blow off the last day of the show (like many do) and come on by.
Lots of interesting meetings planned as well.
I will be writing up things of interest at the show. So stay tuned.
Hat Tip: Mark Evans, Original Source Unknown
I sincerely apologize for the lack of posting in the last two weeks. It’s not that there hasn’t been interesting stuff to talk about (Opnext IPO, Comcast, 3G Conference) it is just that I haven’t made it a priority.
The load weighs heavier these days. Even though I wrote nothing in the last two weeks, I have more subscribers today than I did two weeks ago. This is primarily from new readers Googling search terms, finding this site, and becoming regular readers. Over 6000 people read this blog every week.
I struggle between posting short notes on current events and writing in depth pieces. It would be easier to post more if I wrote more topically, more like a traditional blog. I try and restrict myself to posting only when my opinions are unique, unseen and uncorrelated with outside information. This is not easy to do on a daily basis. It’s even harder if you try to be non-mainstream and right. I reserve the right to compromise my standards in the future. You reserve the right to stop reading.
I do post interesting links in the column to the right and add limited commentary. Even when I’m not writing in depth, I am posting links. They don’t show up in the RSS Feed but I think they make checking the blog every few days worthwhile.
In the meantime, take the time to read Bill Koss and his take on Clearwire. Bill’s blog is the best example of the anti-cut-and-paste blog mentality, where many blog authors all write about the same events without adding any value.
There is an excellent interview with Marc Faber on Bloomberg. He takes issue with the concept of using interest rates as a measure of liquidity, and correctly points out that the public is too concerned with interest rates as a measure of liquidity and not concerned enough with credit growth.
Prediction is an entertaining activity better suited for stimulating discussion than providing an absolute outlook on the future. Therefore, the bolder and more controversial, the better. Keep that in mind as you read and respond.
Checking stats this afternoon I see that for the first time less than 50% of you are using Internet Explorer 6.0. 32% of you use Firefox, and 5% use Safari (Apple Users). Those of you still using Internet Explorer 6.0 really should upgrade to 7.0, something that can be done by running the Windows Update function. Or you can download it directly here. It is a good product. Those of you more technically inclined should download and install Firefox, which is a fantastic product and one I recommend highly.
You’ll have a better experience and more secure experience on this site as well as others if you upgrade.
I’ll be attending the following upcoming events.
- OFC/NFOEC 2007 - I’m specifically interested in meeting with module companies in the interest of refreshing my industry perspective. I’ll also be presenting during the Market Watch session “Wall St. Perspectives” on Thursday March 29th. Come by if you’ve been waiting to heckle me in person.
- CES 2007 - Yes it is a huge grope-fest of a conference but I’ve found strolling the exhibits to be a useful way to kindle ideas.
As always, any meetings and discussions don’t result in anything in this blog without mutual consent and mutual review. You receive free independent editorial coverage with a targeted audience of 10k readers and I learn something new. Win-Win.
Contact me here.
I’ll also be in Santa Barbara for a weekend of riding during the 2007 Tour of California, but that’s strictly pleasure.
Bill Koss posts some entertaining anecdotes on the recent rumblings regarding “Booming Optical Growth“
I’m paraphrasing the article - read it in full here. It’s more serious, I’m just grabbing the funny bits.
Quick, rank the 10 following companies by market capitalization from large to small. If pressed for time, try picking the three biggest and three smallest.
You are probably wondering why this site is down from time to time.
My new hosting provider, Mediatemple, recently moved to a grid-based computing scheme. The upside is it offers virtually unlimited burst capacity. The downside is they can’t seem to get it to work, and you suffer.
I’m not off to a great start with Verizon FiOS TV. Installer pulled a no show at my home this morning. No call, no warning, nothing. I phoned in and spoke to the same lady who took my order. Her explanation? Their systems ‘changed’ and my order was ‘lost’.
Unbelievable. I’m waiting for a call back to find out when I can spend another morning waiting for an installer to show.
Update: - Verizon executes about as good of a recovery as one could expect. They rescheduled me for a Saturday, tomorrow, and credited me $100. Plus, they didn’t try and hide the fact they screwed up.
I have never bought a TV. After college I was one of those weird people who didn’t have one. I came into joint ownership of an ancient Sony when I got married. After 14 years of service we have decided to euthanize it. Simultaneously, I discover that Verizon now offers Versus, the channel previously known as OLN that broadcasts the Tour de France each summer.
This convergence of events has stirred me into capex mode. I signed up for Verizon FiOS TV service (not the el cheapo basic Comcast cable I had previously) and will have it installed in a week. And I have promised to perform my masculine tech-hunting duties by securing a new TV by then.
The Tivo DVR does not yet know that it too, will be put out to pasture. I’m about to discover what sort of competitive advantage their software and infrastructure brings.
A Nyquist portfolio company reported earnings recently. It’s a small market cap tech firm, <$500M.
I am now the proud recipient of 14 different sell-side research reports, freshly printed, sitting on my desk. Many Weyerhaeuser (WY) pines died to bring me this information. But unlike the information obtained by the Bothan spies, the information sitting on my desk is without exception, worthless.
Why do 14 firms to all cover the same company but don’t try to differentiate themselves in any meaningful way? Out of the 14 reports, all but 1 have either market perform or outperform-like ratings (everyone uses their own catchy term for buy/sell/hold these days). The Sell report is the only one with any differentiated information, and the only one that sticks it’s neck out on the line.
What a waste.
Going into this conference I was skeptical. I was not expecting an objective discussion about technology. I was expecting a forum where Gilder portfolio companies are given the microphone and allowed to preach to the Gilder priesthood, and a forum where dissidents to the Gilder viewpoint are viewed with skepticism. I was wrong.
Continue reading ‘Final Thoughts on Gilder Telecosm 2006′
Steve Forbes, John Rutledge, and Carver Mead. In one day, in one place. Fantastic stuff, though readers should be warned you’ll gain more insight into my political rather than my technical beliefs by reading this post. You can be assured they are just as opinionated.
This is really an excellent conference. I am blogging only the sessions that I believe my readers have a direct interest in, but it should be noted that the many interesting sessions are in topics OUTSIDE of what this blog typically covers. I’ll try and summarize some of those events, and add some color to my experience here.
Online Gambling was effectively outlawed in the US today. The legislation is intended to bring ‘fairness’ to the domestic gaming industry which has been harmed by the appearance of off-shore online only gaming companies. What does this mean for brick and mortar retailers squeezed by the internet?
I’m going to attend. I’m going to blog it as well. Conference agenda can be found here. It looks fantastic.
Conference runs from October 4th to October 6th. I’ll be there on the 5th and 6th only.
I love travelling to China. In Shenzhen, five years ago, the big buzz was about the new link between western Shenzhen (Lo Wu) and Hong Kong. This was supposed to ease travel from Hong Kong into the growing parts of western Shenzhen.
I casually remarked that now would be a pretty good time to buy property in Lo Wu.
Early this morning, I checked out Google Earth. The link is here. Note the large amount of heavy construction in Lo Wu (upper left peninsula, lower right is Hong Kong). I’m still betting this is going to be the nicest part of Shenzhen when the bridge is done, and only 30 min from the airport. Anyone know if the bridge will connect into Hong Kongs MTR?
And for those of you who aren’t yet selling to Huawei, here’s a shot of the HQ.
I need to get back to China.
