Published by Andrew Schmitt August 9th, 2006
Here’s a snippet of a conversation I recently had with a private fund manager. We were discussing the decreasing role Wall St. firms play in providing unique investment insights to their clients.
Andrew: What does it mean for Wall St. as their middleman position is eroded? They no longer control the information flow, and the little they do have on money flows shouldn’t be but probably is utilized.
Anonymous: I think you are already seeing it in a few ways. The pairing of research with trading capability is rapidly coming unwound to the point where people like fido (Fidelity) are paying separately for it. Execution has become a commodity with very low prices and research is getting priced much closer to its true value.
Another response is that the street has started to try to control face to face access to management teams. Increasingly, small companies with limited research coverage that come through NYC will let a broker book all their appointments for them, and won’t meet with you independently, thus forcing you to have a trading relationship with the broker in question. It is really dumb, but I’ve seen a lot of that in the last few years.
You’ve also seen all the intellectual horsepower on the street move to the buy side in the last 5-10 years. Part of the success of activist hedge funds is due to the fact that it is easy for them to find each other now and broadcast a different message from management’s tune. There are no effective chokepoints for information anymore, and the sellside is just one more voice out there and one that generally has very low credibility.
Published by Andrew Schmitt August 8th, 2006
The New York Times has a short article on the rapid demise of the CRT as a display technology. Cathode Ray Tubes (CRT’s, that big box I still call a TV) are headed the same way as the 8-track, pulse dialing, typewriter, and mechanical adding machine.
It feels like the bulk of technological evolution in the last 20 years has been more about enabling entirely new applications, and less about simply replacing the technology of old. I wonder if this is a sustainable trend, and if the pendelum is poised to swing back.
I believe technology evolves in two ways:
Continue reading ‘Technology - Obsolescence vs. Empowerment’
Published by Andrew Schmitt August 7th, 2006
Steve Jobs is speaking today. The world breathlessly awaits. The photo illustrates that his goal of global domination draws closer.
I think the second wildest fantasy of any marketing guy is to wield the power that Steve Jobs holds.
Continue reading ‘The Master of the Tech Universe is Speaking’
Published by Andrew Schmitt August 7th, 2006
Credit Suisse discusses Portalplayer (PLAY) today in their morning note.
Michael Masdea now sees Portalplayer as a potential supplier for the Microsoft Zune player, and specifically highlights the existing relationship Portalplayer has with Microsoft.
Current MSFT relationship is key. For many months now, PLAY has been working with Microsoft to develop the Preface technology for laptops. Microsoft is putting significant marketing dollars behind Preface through the “Windows SideShow” name and the Vista launch. As the hardware PLAY ships for the Preface platform is very similar to what PLAY ships into MP3 players, we believe Microsoft will be more inclined to use PLAY chips for its own MP3 player.
This is a concept that we have seen, followed, and talked about for the last six months. It is refreshing to see that this concept is finally more broadly recognized.
Continue reading ‘Credit Suisse on PortalPlayer & Microsoft Relationship’
Published by Andrew Schmitt August 3rd, 2006
I am receiving many Google hits from folks looking for this.
The full transcript of the recent Vitesse Semiconductor (VTSS) conference call has been posted in the SEC EDGAR database and can be accessed here.
My abbreviated notes on the call can be read here.
Published by Andrew Schmitt August 3rd, 2006
The slow motion disaster movie that is Applied Micro Circuits Corporation (AMCC) is still in theaters even though investors stopped buying tickets long ago.
AMCC announced this morning an all cash deal to buy Quake Technologies for $69M net. AMCC has managed to spend nearly $1BB in cash on a number of acquisitions, none of which have provided a return better than simply sticking the dollars in the bank. We feel that Quake will be yet another failed acquisition.
Continue reading ‘Quake - Another Failed AMCC Acquisition’
Published by Andrew Schmitt July 31st, 2006
There was an interesting column in the New York Times last week. The article outlines the different design approaches taken by Google (GOOG) and Yahoo (YHOO). It also provided quantitative values that reinforced a suspicion of mine.
Continue reading ‘Yahoo vs. Google’
Published by Andrew Schmitt July 28th, 2006
Paul Kedrosky highlights one slide presented by Craig Mundie at Microsoft Analyst Day that compares the cumulative R&D investment of Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG), among others.

Two ways to look at this.
- Google, Apple (AAPL), while highfliers, cannot have possibly built an insurmountable competitive advantage because of the relatively low investment they have made. Microsoft has huge latent value as the result of accumulated R&D spending. The asymmetry in the ability of these companies to invest is not appreciated.
- Microsoft has an exceptionally poor return on R&D when compared to peer companies and this slide illustrates that point perfectly. Microsoft’s decision to spend even MORE on R&D is the WRONG decision since they have not figured out how to spend R&D efficiently
This slide really amplifies market concerns that Microsoft’s plans to increase R&D are misguided. I didn’t hear Mundie speak, and the slide is out of context, but I don’t think it makes the argument investors want to hear.
Three Japanese Carriers were sunk by a handful of American fighters in the Battle of Midway and turned the tide of the Pacific war. The World Trade Center was destroyed by a handful of thugs.
Russia also repelled the Germans in 1944 by taking 20 million casualties.
Which way to go? I suppose you only pick the latter when you don’t know how to do the former. The market, or at least the market we are in now, rewards tactical brilliance more than human wave tactics.
Published by Andrew Schmitt July 27th, 2006
I am listening to the Vitesse Semiconductor (vtss) conference call.
Many people have asked me what I thought about owning Vitesse stock. My only answer was that “I didn’t own any”.
Today, on the Vitesse conference call, the details came out. Revenue recognition issues.
There is still something unseen, and related to Vitesse.
Notes from the call are below:
Continue reading ‘Vitesse Conference Call’
Published by Andrew Schmitt July 27th, 2006
As many readers know, I am not a fan of market research companies, particularly when they try to forecast (see “Market Research Firms Shouldn’t Forecast“). Forrester Research aimed for headlines this week while marketing a new report “China Ahead Of US In Broadband Adoption“.
Continue reading ‘Chinese Broadband Penetration Myths’
Published by Andrew Schmitt July 27th, 2006

Floyd Landis’s team Phonak has confirmed suspicions that he tested positive for Testosterone doping the day after Stage 17 into Morzine, where Landis regained 8 minutes in an epic show of guts, strength, and iron will. (Do I sound like a schlocky Olympic commentator yet?)
Continue reading ‘Floyd Landis’
Published by Andrew Schmitt July 24th, 2006
What was rampant speculation (including ours) is now official- AMD (AMD) is buying ATI Technologies (ATYT), a Canadian maker of graphics accelerator chipsets.

Graphics acceleration is no longer for gaming freaks; the new version of Microsoft Vista contains advanced visual features dubbed “Aero” that demand more functionality than the standard video frame buffer can provide.
Continue reading ‘AMD buys ATI’
Published by Andrew Schmitt July 24th, 2006
From Telephony Online:
In a research note issued this morning, UBS analyst Nikos Theodosopoulos said Verizon (VZ) is likely to pick Alcatel (ALA), Motorola (MOT) and Tellabs (TLAB) as its GPON suppliers in a twist on the carrier’s traditional dual-sourcing practices.
Typically the Bells would select two vendors, with a 70:30 deployment split between the two over the life of the contract. Who got the 70 was usually determined by technology and pricing in the early stages of the contract, establishing relative incumbency for one supplier.
Continue reading ‘Verizon GPON Selection’
Published by Andrew Schmitt July 21st, 2006
Interesting interview in Businessweek on Net Neutrality with Verizon’s VP of Public Affairs (aka he works in Washington DC) Thomas J. Tauke.
It would appear that Verizon has finally found someone who can make a clear case as to why Net Neutrality legislation is anti-market, anti-competitive, and a expropriation of corporate property. This guy mixes the Kool-Aid extra sweet…
Should Internet content providers pay extra to reach customers at higher speeds?
It depends. There is no business model yet that we are aware of where the content providers are paying. But as these networks have increased capability, and as new companies emerge, we think new models will develop.
So let’s say, for example, that you’ve purchased 5 megabits of service, and you are a gamer. And the XYZ gaming company develops a new game that needs 25 megabits of service. They could come to you as a consumer of their products and say: “Go to Verizon and buy 25 megabits.” Or they could come to Verizon and say: “When he logs on, we want you to up the speed so that he will get 25 megabits.” So this would be a way in which they could jumpstart their business by making sure that when you purchased the game from them you also got the high-speed capability.
Is there a gaming company that is doing that now? No. Should we prevent a gaming company from doing that? We don’t see why, because it obviously is easier for that gaming company to come to us and say, “When one of our customers needs this speed, we’d like to give it to them,” rather than to have them go and convince every one of their customers that they should pay for this high-speed access on a monthly basis.
In effect, net neutrality legislation would eliminate a carriers ability to offer variable pricing.
Update: This interview was a sidebar to a longer article lamenting the Bell’s lack of innovation. I’ve also made some comments following up on a Techdirt post that I disagreed with.
Published by Andrew Schmitt July 20th, 2006
Saw a Reuters newswire release on Intel (INTC) and how their engineers are continuing to work in Haifa even though the city is being periodically hit with Hizbollah (Syrian? Lebanese? Whose?) rockets.
The Intel article on wi-fi bomb shelters, while a surprise to some, was not a surprise to me. It reminded me of the time I first visited Israel for business, February 25th, 1998.
Continue reading ‘Life During Wartime’
Published by Andrew Schmitt July 20th, 2006
Interesting little factoid-table on semiconductor market share in China.
Continue reading ‘China Semiconductor Market Share’
Published by Andrew Schmitt July 14th, 2006
The pre-release benchmarks and rumors about Intel’s (INTC) new architecture are holding firm now that the silicon has seen official release.
Two independent reviewers have written opinions about the new Intel Core processors (see below)… both were previously solid AMD (AMD) supporters.
Intel has now seized a commanding lead in performance desktop processors. This is in addition to the spectacular technical success of Woodcrest in Server space - where AMD has caused the most financial damage.
Continue reading ‘Intel - Putting the Hurt on AMD’
Published by Andrew Schmitt July 13th, 2006
Received a couple emails and a Yahoo! IM today with the same question… why no blogging?
I’m working on a detailed study on optical modules. I think I’ve found something particularly interesting.
Continue reading ‘Head Down, Working’
Published by Andrew Schmitt July 12th, 2006
Last night I found what I feel is a killer app for Google Earth (I am biased).
You can get all of the Tour de France stages overlaid right into the Google Earth application, complete with sprint points, KOM points, and climb designations.
The resolution in the Pyrenees/Provence/Alps is poor when compared with North America, but it sure beats the pants off the 10 second fly-through glimpse you get on OLN’s TV coverage every night.
If you are into cycling, check it out.
Source: Official Google Blog
Published by Andrew Schmitt July 7th, 2006
Rumors have been coming fast and furious over the last month about Microsoft’s (MSFT) entry into the digital music player business. The NY Times broke the story today with multiple confirmed sources, turning rumors into fact.
Engadget has dug up some interesting rumors that go beyond what was reported in the New York Times today.
Continue reading ‘Microsoft’s iPod Killer Emerges’
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