ALU
The Bank of Cisco
Cisco announced it’s intention to sell $4 billion in debt, and unlike most following the company, we don’t think it is earmarked for acquisitions.
The Offering
The $4 billion in debt is divided equally between 10-year and 30-year notes, with the 10-year yielding 4.95% and the 30-year yielding 5.95%. This is +2.2% and +2.5% over U.S. Treasury yields. This cash will be used to supplement the $2.5B in domestic cash (Oct ‘08) Cisco has on hand. Of course, Cisco also has $24.3B (Oct ‘08) in overseas subsidiaries that hasn’t been repatriated to the USA in order to avoid corporate taxes.
Cisco last issued debt almost exactly 3 years ago. The $6.5B in notes issued then were used primarily to pay for the Scientific Atlanta acquisition. Cisco got a relative bargain then by today’s standard with the bonds yielding .75% to 1% above prevailing treasury rates at the time. Cisco had $15B in liquid assets then, most of it overseas.
We acknowledge it is entirely possible Cisco is filling a war chest for acquisitions. Everyone loves to play the who-will-Cisco-buy-next-game (our longstanding bet is Adtran). Cisco CEO John Chambers answered questions in his typical guarded way during an interview last month, indicating “The perfect target is a company with 100 people and a hot product that customers are saying they should go out and buy” and “We do not believe in the acquisition of large peers in any space.”
Cisco could fund such small acquisitions out of working capital, and any large acquisitions could be funded by a bond offering after the announcement, just as they did with Scientific Atlanta. This forces one to ask the question – why did Cisco just decide to triple the amount of cash it has for domestic use if we assume it isn’t for acquisitions?
The Environment
Cash is more valuable than ever because it is now very expensive to obtain for all but the best capitalized companies. Cisco can borrow against the billions in assets sitting offshore. The problem is that many of Cisco’s customers don’t have the same hefty balance sheets. Many of them can’t get money at all.
Contrary to what you would think, corporate bond issuance is up 38% in 2009. Corporate bond yield spreads have widened in the past 12 months but have retreated from the panic highs of fall 2008. Large, well capitalized companies are tapping the market’s demand for high grade debt.
It is a different story for companies with lower debt grades. While there has been some improvement in the past months, lower grade ‘junk’ debt is anywhere between 5-7% more expensive than it was a year ago- if a company can get money at all. The number one issue facing these companies in 2009 is the availability of cash.
Cisco’s channel partners, the folks who distribute Cisco to small and medium sized accounts, can no longer borrow at LIBOR +1%. Many of the lines of credit they are using today would not be written today and if they were, written at much higher rates. In some cases lines of credit that existed one day simply vaporized the next- just ask anyone who had credit with Lehman brothers.
The Bank of Cisco
We believe Cisco is growing operating cash in order to serve as a lender of last resort to its distributors and customers. An expanded balance sheet will ensure adequate capital is available not just for its own operations, but also the operations of its channel partners and customers.
If a key distributor were to suddenly lose a line of credit because the bank underwriting it implodes, Cisco can step into the breach and act as lender. If a contract manufacturer cannot obtain inventory financing Cisco can extend terms. Just as the Federal Reserve is the lender of last resort for the nations banks, Cisco can become the lender of last resort for the supply and demand chain.
Section 6 of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Cisco’s 10Q details these financial commitments. Examination of these numbers shows that Cisco has increased its financing commitments in various areas by 50-75% over the previous year (October 08/07), a period in which total revenue grew only 5%. This is quantitative evidence that Cisco is stepping into the breach created by a collapse in the credit markets.
Competitive Advantage
There is no more powerful weapon than the cost of capital, a point often lost on the tech industry which tends to focus on datasheets and speeds and feeds. During the wars between England and France, England was able to consistently field more and better ships as a result of having a cost of capital 2% better than the French, due in part to the mercantilist nature of the English economy. Cisco, like England, is turning its lower cost of capital into a competitive weapon.
Take for instance, Hewlett Packard. Much hay has been made in the recent press about how HP is going to have a run at Cisco’s mid-range Enterprise business. But in the fiscal environment of 2009-2010 this isn’t a technology fight. It is a balance sheet fight. And Cisco can deploy billions more in working capital simply because HP is already significantly more leveraged than Cisco.
It is no secret that Huawei is aggressively taking global market share, particularly in second and third world nations. Many people mistakenly believe this is because they offer cheap prices. This is not always the case. What Huawei does consistently offer are attractive credit terms, and are often the only equipment vendor doing so. While Alcatel and Ericsson still feel the vendor financing wounds of 2001-2 Huawei has no such memory.
Case in point – Telecom Malaysia (TMNET) selected vendors for a well publicized FTTH rollout and initially selected GE-PON. Huawei, at the time, was a laggard in GE-PON technology and pushed GPON. While additional information is forthcoming from TMNET in Q109 we believe Huawei won the business with GPON not based on technical superiority but on the willingness to underwrite the financing for the deal.
Strong balance sheets are powerful weapons during times of tight credit and Cisco just loaded a fresh clip.
Broadcom Enters FTTH Chipset Market
Broadcom is entering the PON chip market and has secured design wins with a major tier-1 equipment vendor. While this is something predicted here, the timetable was sooner than expected. This will have a substantial impact on FTTH component and equipment suppliers as well as the carrier currently conducting lab trials with the device.
ADVA Q407
We summarize ADVA’s quarterly call and shed light on the issues surrounding a decline in revenue from channel partners as well as the threats they face in 2008.
Ikanos Picks Up Alcatel’s Check
Ikanos (IKAN) announced last week that it would pay a ‘leading European OEM’ $1.6M in return for a development agreement, most likely Alcatel. This is a very odd deal and is worthy of closer examination.
FTTH Silicon Market Share
The latest Linley Group report on Networking Silicon Market Share provides a breakout of PON FTTH silicon market share for the second year running.. It includes both market size and market share information for all Networking markets, including PON. The key takeaway is that Linley believes the market grew only 20% in dollar size, though I estimate deployments grew worldwide over 50% year over year. Such is life as a semiconductor vendor.
They shared the following data with me.
Infinera – The Optical Component Company That Wasn’t
Infinera (INFN) had a very successful first day of trading after seven years of working counter to the popular and misguided beliefs of a Gilderesque all optical future.
Great controversy surrounds the company and investors wonder whether the valuation attached to company is justifiable. The valuation is indeed debatable and is predicated on their success penetrating the PTTs & Bellcos.
State of the Photon – Global FTTH Activity
I haven’t been shy about my prediction that GE-PON would trump GPON deployments and so far I’ve been right. The dominance of GE-PON continues, with large deployments planned or underway throughout Asia. Verizon (VZ) is the only carrier deploying BPON/GPON in size though some activity is promised in Europe. We shall see.
Let’s take a quick look at the state of the photon.
Any Hope for Ethernet over PDH?
One area that I strongly believe will see greater capex in 2008-2009 is Enterprise Access. (see “Enterprise Access Capex – A Ray of Hope?“)
Cable modems forced the Telcos to dig DSL technology from the closet they were hiding it in order to remain competitive. The same forces are aligning today in enterprise access – but this time it’s dark fiber, PON, and even short range wireless that are the threats. What technology represents Telcos only hope of retaining business customers?
AMCC demonstrates GPON MAC
AMCC (AMCC) demonstrated a GPON chipset in a Xilinx FPGA at OFC in Anaheim. No announcement (that I saw) was made, and no press was in Lightreading.
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Ciena Sees Red at BT
Two things happened today. Ciena (CIEN) inked their contract with British Telecom for the BT’s 21CN project. And Marconi shareholders approved the sale of the company to Ericsson. Many readers know these two minor events have a bellwether common denominator – a willingness to meet the new price targets set by Chinese competition.
Just as Vietnam and Afghanistan were proxy wars for the 20th century superpowers, BT’s 21CN will be the first full-blown encounter between incumbent and Chinese research, customer service, accounting practices, and cost structures.
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