CIEN
The Fuzzy Future of 40G
There is an optimistic sense of inevitability among investors that the optical network will transition from 10Gbs to 40Gbs. This inevitability is misplaced, as the rules that applied during the transition to 10Gbs no longer apply today. There is little technological, architectural, or economical reason for a widespread move to 40Gbs technology.
Ciena Detonates the Market
Sacred cows are always slaughtered last. Ciena gave the equity markets an unwelcome surprise yesterday and triggered a broad market sell off in the sector. This event challenges Ciena’s status as a sector favorite as well as the perception that a video boom will save us all.
Adtran Q108
Adtran reported surprisingly good numbers and made specific comments that indicate the Great North American capex freeze of 2007 is thawing in a few areas. The company also had interesting things to say relative to access market growth and trends in the Enterprise portion of their business.
ADVA Q407
We summarize ADVA’s quarterly call and shed light on the issues surrounding a decline in revenue from channel partners as well as the threats they face in 2008.
LightReading Ethernet Conference Notes
This is a collection of notes and observations gathered during the LightReading Ethernet Conference that didn’t merit a standalone article. Unless noted, these conclusions were from conversations I had while at the conference, and not the opinions of presenters.
Ciena and The Future of Carrier Ethernet
Ciena (CIEN) shares have been on a bit of a tear recently, rising 20% in June. Unfortunately we haven’t participated in this gain and I believe it is worth explaining the historical thinking behind this decision.
MRV Goes 10GE to the Premises
MRV Communications (MRVC) announced the OptiSwitch 930, a 10G Ethernet demarcation box today. Demarc boxes are designed to sit at a customer site to manage and monitor the interface between the customer premises and the carriers network. While it is certainly a headline grabbing offering I don’t think significant demand exists for a 10G demarc device. It does highlight the increasing interest in hardware for providing ethernet services to businesses. (see “Enterprise Access Capex – A Ray of Hope?“)
BT’s 21CN – Reversing a Victorian Tradition
England is near the top of the list of countries I don’t like to visit. My wife likes watching the tedious Victorian England dramas of BBC “Masterpiece Theatre”. I last about 10 minutes until their images force memories of stuffy rooms, bad heating, weird ergonomics and truly god-awful food to resurface.
There is one exception to my stereotype. British Telecom’s (BT) 21st Century (21CN) initiative. No Victorian Bric-a-Brac here.
Dr. Strangelove, Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying and Love Huawei.
I know two American engineers who have relocated to China to lead optical module design teams at Chinese equipment companies. They live and work in China for Chinese companies, using their skills to build custom modules – skills no longer in demand from their American Tier-1 telecom equipment employers.
What’s Going On in Optical
OK, since I’ve been called out by Om Malik, I’m going to let rip with a stream-of-conciousness monologue on optical. No backspace key, no delete key, spelling corrections ex-post-facto. Here goes.
