Archive for Symbol 'intc'



Intel - First, Fire the Marketing Guy

I reviewed the slides presented by Paul Otellini at the Intel (INTC) 2006 Annual Meeting.

The most interesting one puts the recent market share decline in perspective. What surprised me was the big leap back in ‘95, when the Pentium branding pulled the rug out from under AMD (AMD) and Cyrix who had ‘cloned’ the i486 nomenclature. That was a masterful marketing move, second only to the best one in semiconductor history, Intel Inside.

Intel Market Share

Continue reading ‘Intel - First, Fire the Marketing Guy’

The Four Horsemen of Web 2.0

Cisco (CSCO), Oracle (ORCL), Sun (SUNW), and EMC (EMC) were the darlings of the internet boom and were referred to as the ‘Four Horsemen‘. Your broker was overheard in 2000 “Yes, things are in fact a bit irrational but these companies have real products, revenues, and earnings and are investment-grade leaders of the new economy.”

Your broker neglected to mention that the biblical Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse were steered by four riders - Conqueror, War, Famine and Death. I’ll leave it to my readers to pair them appropriately.

Four Horsemen

Continue reading ‘The Four Horsemen of Web 2.0′

Intel’s Communication Group - Destiny Fulfilled

intelIntel corp (INTC) lands on Page A1 of the WSJ with a story covering their Analyst Day presentation in New York yesterday. The big news that is getting widespread coverage in many media outlets- including BusinessWeek - is that they are cutting $1BB (8%) in spending but without across the board job cuts.

The big problem is Intel’s work force grew 17% in the last year alone. So, the obvious path is to find businesses with high costs and low revenue, and spin those out to people who can manage them tighter. It sounds like this is exactly what Intel plans to do.

From the article:

Mr. Otellini promised to look at “anything with a bracket on it” — a reference to the practice of putting parentheses around numbers in income statements to indicate a loss. In the first quarter, that category included a unit that makes chips known as flash memory, which are used to store data in portable gadgets such as cellphones. That business, which is subject to stiff price competition, had an operating loss that widened to $104 million from $32 million in the year-earlier period.

How exactly is it that you couldn’t make money in flash over the last few years you ask? Until very recently Intel built only NOR flash, rather than the NAND flash that has buyers in a global-crisscrossing frenzy trying to secure supply. Check the wiki for a good overview of the differences. NOR flash isn’t as hot as NAND these days as it lacks the ‘iPod cachet’ (the iPod and other flash based memory players use NAND).

I’m not an expert on the ins and outs of the flash business, but I do know the worst time to sell a business is when no one wants it. Why can’t Intel clean this up themselves? Anyone care to comment?

The communication semiconductor, wireless, and optical business at Intel is another story altogether. Virtually an entire standalone company stretching from Network Processors to Storage to SONET/SDH chipsets to optical modules exists within Intel. Other than the large market share Intel enjoys with it’s 10GbE modules at Cisco the most remarkable thing about this division has been it’s ability to bleed cash.

Up until January of 2004, when Intel decided to merge the groups (and make the accounting more opaque), the wireless and communication groups were losing nearly $1BB a year. They are now shrouded in a massive group called ‘Mobility’, co-run by Sean Maloney, who oversaw the radical expansion and subsequent poor performance of these businesses during the boom. It isn’t clear where things stand financially now, but a qualitative estimate (i.e. wild-ass-guess) on my part would say the business is still losing 300M-500M annually. Witness the large amounts of money being poured into WiMax, PCI-Express/Advanced Switching. It is safe to assume thriftiness has not taken hold.

The Intel communication business is a case study in waiting for a private equity takeover and turnaround. KKR and Silver Lake Partners acquired Agilent’s semiconductor business with this intention. I imagine they will be interested, among others. Given the lack of good data on individual business unit size and performance it’s hard to put a price tag on what the business is worth. It is safe to say that it would be a big liquidity event for Intel, and allow the company to focus on it’s core businesses - memory and processors.

The possibilities for positive consolidation with portions of Intel’s comm semi business are limitless, which is why it’s such an attractive deal. Finisar (FNSR), JDSU (JDSU), Bookham (BKHM), PMC-Sierra (PMCS), Broadcom (BRCM), AMCC (AMCC), Marvell (MRVL) and many others would all be interested in portions of Intel’s comm and optical business. The more interesting and risky alternative is to keep the business whole, scrub it down hard, and spin in companies that have failed to gain critical mass following the communication implosion of 2001. This would take a great deal of cash and credit, something the market may be on the verge of granting in these days of private-equity gone wild.

It will be interesting to see if Intel attempts to sell off small pieces; i.e. NPU’s here, SONET/SDH there, optical modules here and there. Or, will they unload the giant mass into the hands of a private equity firm that will handle the slaughterhouse task of filleting the fine meat and grinding up the bone for cattle feed. My guess is the latter.

This is just about the best consolidation opportunity in the comm semi business I’ve seen.

Update 4 May 2006: Lightreading just published an article on the same subject.

Impressions of a Data Center

365Main ImageA few weeks back, while in CA for OFC/NFOEC, I was lucky to get a late night tour of 365 Main, a massive, state of the art data center near the Embarcadero in San Francisco. My guide, Peter Kranz, was someone I worked with and co-adventured with in College who is now the owner and CEO of Unwired, a San Francisco based CLEC. His equipment is in this data center, and he invited me in for a look.

While I spent over a decade analyzing, understanding, and helping architect optical telecommunication silicon, I never had the opportunity to set foot in a data center and see it all in action. Thanks Peter!

Here’s an informal list of my impressions:

  • The infrastructure surrounding the networking hardware was the most impressive part of the tour. The building sits on a completely isolated base, allowing it to sway 15 inches without interior damage. The pipes, cables, walkways - all are flexible at the interface to the building. The building itself is an old Marine supply depot, built on bedrock adjacent to the bay bridge support piling.
  • The building has 20 Megawatts of backup power generation capability that can operate for three days with fuel stored on-site, and contracts to rapidly secure more if needed in case of a ‘major event’. There are no batteries in the building, in the event of a sudden outage, a massive flywheel provides power for the few seconds required for the diesel generators to turn on and reach the RPMs necessary for generation. The same flywheel also provides power conditioning. I don’t know what that flywheel must weigh, but I sure would hate to see what happens if it comes off its bearings.
  • Power and Heat. Customers told me over and over again about how power consumption was important, but standing in a room 1/2 the size of a football field stuffed with servers drove years of customer comments. I could feel the cool A/C blowing in the room, but it felt like it was barely winning the battle against all of the heat I felt radiating from the racks as I stood close. Peter informed me that for some of the customers in the building, the power bills exceeded the cost of the square footage they leased. Each customer pays for the electricity their installation uses, and given all of the exotic measures taken to prevent an outage, it costs 2-3x times what you pay per Kilowatt at your home. A PC that costs $10 a month to operate in your home would cost $30 in this data center. Google has published papers on how electrical costs are closing in on actual hardware costs, while Sun Microsystems (SUNW) is betting the company on this metric in a bold bet against commodity Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD) CPUs.
  • There was a very motley collection of servers throughout the facility, everything from IBM high-end bladeservers with perfectly maintained cabling to Taiwanese no-name rackable servers with a rats nest of CAT5. Walking through the facility and seeing the sheer amount of computing hardware made me realize that there is little future in building commodity server hardware. The profits will come from the management software and other value-add areas. Servers will be bought on the basis of reliability, form factor, and power consumption. Given that these metrics are more determined by the component vendors that supply the hardware the servers are built from, being an assembler of server hardware seems like a low margin opportunity- unless your specialty is having the best low-margin supply chain, like Dell. (DELL)
  • Where the server farms were crowded and chaotic, the network colocation room, where all of the broadband carriers terminate and interconnect their WAN, was more of an open cathedral. Security was particularly tight for this area, as a pulled fiber could disrupt a significant amount of traffic. Each carrier had their equipment bunched in a particular area. There was also a clear class system when it came to equipment - SBC/AT&T (T ) had high end Cisco GSR’s and Ciena (CIEN) transport equipment, where as Abovenet (ABVT.PK) had a WDM system from the now defunct LuxN (bankrupt, acquired by Sorrento, acquired by Zhone).
  • 365 Main is a hub for much of the fiber owned by PG&E, the local power company. When PG&E puts an electrical cable into the basement of a commercial building they add in a fiber cable as well. CLECs then contract with a company designated by PG&E to lease this dark fiber and provide services to customers in those buildings. It would seem that these assets are now significantly more valuable given the recent rulings on business line sharing.

All in all, a great time for a hardware geek like myself. Unfortunately, no photos to share, and even if I had them I am not sure I would be comfortable posting them. Also, I took no notes during my visit, so please be careful quoting some of the above as my memory is not always to be trusted.





This website incorporates no offer, nor solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any security or investment.

DISCLAIMER

Nyquist Capital is powered by WordPress 2.1.3, K2 and 3 Column K2
RSS Entries and RSS Comments