MRVL
The Future of the NPU Market – Part 1
Tthere are parts of the NPU market that will do well and others that will not. The edge of the network, with its burgeoning application growth, provides a fertile cradle for the NPU model while the core network is so harsh an environment that even the best managed companies face long odds of generating superior investment returns. Let’s examine why that is.
Cisco’s Fear of a Broadcom Planet
There are few franchises in the silicon business where one vendor so completely dominates the market. Everyone can name Intel’s CPU business as one. But can you name another?
Infineon/TI (IFX) in DSL is a contender. Conexant (CNXT) in PC modems (but little profit to show for it). Netlogic (NETL) in exotic CAM’s (but beholden to one sugar daddy customer – Cisco).
But nothing approaches the complete and total dominance of Broadcom’s (BRCM) grip on Ethernet switching silicon.
AMCC – Further Down the Spiral
AMCC (AMCC) held a conference call last Friday to review preliminary FQ108 results. The company indicated in April that FQ108 would be $60M down from $70M in the previous quarter (see “AMCC Kicks the Distribution Habit“). The final tally now puts it closer to $50M, a quarter over quarter decline of nearly 30%. This is worthy of detailed examination.
Vitesse Investment Thesis
I’ve been engaged in constant debate with readers and other investors about my position in Vitesse Semiconductor since disclosing it. Based on reader email, it was one of my more unpopular opinions. I thought it would be appropriate to share my investment thesis from early August with a wider audience.
EZ-Chip and Raza Micro at Gilder Telecosm 2006
NPU companies consistently make the case the market is moving into their domain and that technology is their edge, right up to the point they go out of business.
Quake – Another Failed AMCC Acquisition
The slow motion disaster movie that is Applied Micro Circuits Corporation (AMCC) is still in theaters even though investors stopped buying tickets long ago.
AMCC announced this morning an all cash deal to buy Quake Technologies for $69M net. AMCC has managed to spend nearly $1BB in cash on a number of acquisitions, none of which have provided a return better than simply sticking the dollars in the bank. We feel that Quake will be yet another failed acquisition.
Intel’s Communication Group – Destiny Fulfilled
Intel corp (INTC) lands on Page A1 of the WSJ with a story covering their Analyst Day presentation in New York yesterday. The big news that is getting widespread coverage in many media outlets- including BusinessWeek – is that they are cutting $1BB (8%) in spending but without across the board job cuts.
The big problem is Intel’s work force grew 17% in the last year alone. So, the obvious path is to find businesses with high costs and low revenue, and spin those out to people who can manage them tighter. It sounds like this is exactly what Intel plans to do.
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